The U.S. dairy herd has grown to its largest size in three decades, but the supply of replacement heifers is at its lowest level since 1978.
That’s according to a new report from CoBank.
It says dairy producers are increasingly breeding cows to produce beef-on-dairy calves rather than future milk cows, taking advantage of record-high cattle prices and strong beef demand.
As a result, replacement heifer supplies are expected to tighten further in 2026 before beginning a recovery in 2027.
Heifer prices have surged above $3,000 per head, prompting many dairies to keep older cows in production longer than usual.
“On most dairy farms, net margins are currently being driven by the beef check, not the milk check,” said Corey Geiger, CoBank’s Lead Dairy Economist. “That shift is reshaping the U.S. dairy herd, most notably through the decline in replacement heifers.”
