Beef prices are projected to continue increasing in 2026 as U.S. beef production continues to decline, with no obvious signs of rebuilding the cattle herd.
That comes from John Lovett of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture.
At the beginning of 2025, U.S. cattle inventories were at their lowest point since the 1950s, and the industry has been in liquidation mode since it peaked at 94.7 million head in 2019.
“Since then,” Lovett said, “the nation’s beef herd has decreased by eight million head of cattle.”
Liquidating cattle inventories is one phase of a typical cattle cycle, which is a ten-to-12-year pattern of expanding and contracting cattle numbers, driven largely by changes in producer profitability and worsened by drought.
Bloomberg reports cheap beef could be driven further out of reach for many consumers as Brazil, another large cattle supplier, is heading into a period of shrinking cattle numbers that could push global prices higher.
