Farm Journal’s first Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor of 2026 shows the U.S. ag economy entered the year in a clear crop-sector recession.
However, the survey also finds a deeper crisis of confidence.
Economists say the downturn is cyclical and manageable through optimization, but farmers are experiencing it as a structural stress test on their operations and livelihoods.
The first survey points to a continuing split in the ag economy, which is strength in livestock, particularly beef cattle, versus persistent financial stress across most of the row-crop sector.
The Monthly Monitor asks respondents to compare the ag economy right now with the same time a year ago, and most retailers, producers, and economists report being somewhat worse off.
“Across nearly all responses, margin pressure emerged as a dominant concern,” said Tyne Morgan of AgWeb.
“While several producers talk about diversifying as a key, others responded with cutting costs to the bone, especially around capital spending.”
