Economic analysts like those at CoBank say recent economic data has generally been more positive in nature, tempering expectations for significant interest rate cuts before the end of the year.
A new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange said the most likely scenario is an additional four or five cuts of 25 basis points through 2026, leaving the overnight rate around three percent by the end of next year.
Tariff policy uncertainty, the sharp drop in immigration, and a massive surge in AI investments have made interpreting traditional economic reports more difficult.
The CoBank report suggests sharp swings in monthly import volumes, a flatter working-age population growth, and a soaring stock market make it more difficult to gauge how “Main Street” America is doing economically.
“The intense politicization of attitudes has rendered longstanding public sentiment surveys erratic and unhelpful in gauging actual economic conditions,” said Rob Fox, vice president of the Knowledge Exchange.
