The Department of Agriculture just updated trade projections for the remainder of fiscal year 2022 and the first projections for fiscal year 2023.
The outlook follows the federal fiscal year, which begins on October 1 and ends on September 30.
Agriculture exports for 2023 are projected at $193.5 billion, with imports at $197 billion.
The export forecast is $2.5 billion below the revised 2022 forecast.
The decrease is primarily driven by lower exports of cotton, beef, and sorghum that are partially offset by higher exports of soybeans and horticultural products.
For 2022, the export estimate of a record $196.0 billion represents an increase of $5.0 billion from May’s projection, mainly due to increases in livestock, poultry, and dairy exports.
USDA cautions that the global economic outlook for 2022 and 2023 is growing more uncertain due to the continued materialization of downside risks.
Previous growth projections are moderated due to ongoing trade disruptions, above-target inflation rates, and rising energy prices.
